Companies are opting to wait and see as the clock ticks down on U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff deadline, rather than rushing shipments across the border to beat the buzzer, industry insiders say.
A new round of 50 per cent tariffs on nearly US$20 billion worth of Canadian goods ranging from dairy to down jackets is set to take effect Aug. 19. Unlike most of Trump’s other tariffs, the duties would not exempt goods that comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, a trade deal widely known as CUSMA.
In spite of the looming threat, business owners have avoided front-loading their shipments, said Janine Harker, president of the Canadian Society of Customs Brokers.
"For better or for worse, everybody has settled into a process of watchful waiting — and planning to the extent possible, but very much not trying to get too ahead of what actually comes out as the official direction on Aug. 19," she said.
In the meantime, businesses continue to track whether the president will live up to his perceived proclivity for bluffing or backing down on tariff pledges — among others — which has given rise to the acronym known as TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out).
"We're getting a little bit blasé. Trump never follows through — TACO," said John Corey, who heads the Freight Management Association of Canada.
He pointed to several unfulfilled threats, including the president's vow late last month "to put a big tariff on Canada because of the smoke," as haze from Canadian wildfires drifted across the border to blanket swaths of the U.S.
"People are starting to see there’s a lot of bluster, but not much comes of it," said Corey, who views the White House pronouncements as a negotiating tactic amid a review of CUSMA.
Others aren't so sure.
“The feedback that we're getting so far is that it will be implemented," said Alain Bédard, CEO of TFI International Inc., Canada's largest trucking firm, on a recent call with analysts.
Despite that uncertainty, he's seen little evidence of a behavioural shift by shippers.
“We’re not seeing any movement that’s exceptional, like pre-buying or pre-shipping because of the 30-day implementation deadline," he said on July 27.
"This is not the same as what we’ve seen in Q1 (2025), where everybody was trying to chase volumes into the U.S. prior to tariffs."
Through much of last year, retailers and exporters across the globe rushed to beat American tariff deadlines that shifted constantly by way of temporary reprieves, pauses and extensions. Now, with Canadian shippers more desensitized to the trade tumult, their preparations have taken different forms, such as assessing the potential financial toll.
Customs brokers are scrambling to help clients review their products and supply chains to determine whether their goods fall under the threatened tariff regime, said Harker.
"Many importers were just getting their heads around whether or not their goods were compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement," she said. Some took steps to obtain certification under the trade pact. For a raft of products, that compliance could be meaningless by next week.
Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Janice Charette, Canada's chief trade negotiator, have been in Washington since Monday for talks and a pair meetings with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
Picture Courtesy: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov
