A new study released Friday suggests that Canada is on track to miss its 2030 emissions target under the Paris Agreement — and it won't even reach it by 2050, the year it was supposed to hit net-zero.
The analysis, published by the Canadian Climate Institute, suggests recent climate policy rollbacks by the federal government have put Canada more than 20 years behind schedule on reducing emissions.
Under Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government, Canada promised to bring Canada’s emissions to 30 per cent below 2005 levels.
In 2021, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government increased that target to between 40 and 45 per cent and set a goal of hitting net-zero — where all emissions are captured by nature or technology — by mid-century.
While Prime Minister Mark Carney and his ministers said repeatedly over the past year Canada is still committed to its climate targets, he acknowledged in June the country's emissions would be higher "in the next few years" than previously projected.
He said the Trudeau-era policies were "too expensive and divisive."
A study released in February by the Canadian Climate Institute — which receives three-quarters of its funding from the federal government — already suggested Canada was off-track to reach net-zero by 2050.
But Friday's report, which incorporates recent policy changes into the institute's emissions modelling, says Canada would even "be lucky to hit its 2030 target in 2050."
"What the country has already shown is that we can cut emissions while growing the economy," Rick Smith, the institute's president, told The Canadian Press.
"But, you know, this isn't going to happen magically."
Carney, who served as a UN climate envoy for a time before becoming prime minister, has been accused of backsliding on climate policy for the better part of the past year.
He eliminated the consumer carbon price on his first day in office in March 2025. While he promised a strengthened industrial carbon pricing system, he was accused of weakening that system through an agreement with Alberta in May that has ramifications for every other province and territory.
His government also is moving to repeal the electric vehicle sales mandate — Ottawa has promised stronger tailpipe standards but those are still years away — and to cancel the oil and gas emissions cap. Carney's government also has delayed methane regulations in Alberta.
Carney has also set a goal of increasing the electric vehicle adoption rate to 75 per cent by 2035, with a hope of reaching 90 per cent by 2040. The government's national electricity strategy, released in May, also promised to lower emissions, though Ottawa has yet to present a plan to implement the strategy.
"Those are just kind of aspirational comments right now, there's no specific government policy attached to any of them," Smith said.
"We couldn't bake any of that into the analysis that we're releasing. But as the details of those policies materialize over the next few months, those are the types of significant moves that would improve these calculations."
A report by Environment Commissioner Jerry DeMarco in 2024 said the country had about 20 to 30 years worth of emissions reductions to get through in order to meet its 2030 target.
According to the latest government figures, Canada had only achieved a 10.3 per cent reduction from 2005 levels, with total emissions down 78 million tonnes in 21 years — making it the worst-performing country in the G7.
Canada would need to cut emissions equivalent to 102 million passenger gas-powered vehicles to reach the 2030 target.
In a statement responding to the study, the office of Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin said Ottawa is still committed to reaching net-zero by 2050 through "a pragmatic and durable approach."
"This includes building major clean energy projects across the country, driving mass electrification, and making significant investment in the low-carbon economy," said press secretary Keean Nembhard, citing the planned North Coast Transmission Line, which Ottawa says will reduce emissions by three million tonnes a year.
"Getting to net-zero also requires building clean, affordable, and reliable power across the country, and we are moving rapidly to build the clean energy infrastructure that makes that possible. This includes the doubling of Canada’s electricity grid in our Electricity Strategy, building major clean energy projects, and retrofitting one million homes for energy efficiency."
Picture Courtesy: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Laura Proctor
