Tuesday, December 23, 2025
ADVT 
International

UK Would Enter Recession In Case Of No-deal Brexit: Watchdog

Darpan News Desk IANS, 18 Jul, 2019 08:40 PM

    The UK's economy would slide into recession in 2020 if it leaves the EU without a deal, according to a report by the country's fiscal watchdog on Thursday.


    The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which provides independent economic advice to the British government, said the economy would lose two per cent in gross domestic product if the UK pulled out of the EU on October 31 without first securing a future agreement.


    Both Conservative Party leadership candidates, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, have kept the no-deal Brexit option on the table.


    "Heightened uncertainty and declining confidence deter investment, while higher trade barriers with the EU weigh on exports," said the OBR's report on its no-deal Brexit stress test.


    "Together, these push the economy into recession, with asset prices and the pound falling sharply."


    "Real GDP falls by 2 per cent by the end of 2020 and is 4 per cent below our March forecast by that point," according to the report cited by Efe news.


    Such a scenario would push borrowing up to 30 billion pounds a year and would add 12 per cent GDP to net debt by 2023-24, both projected figures being higher than initially forecast in a report in March.


    A no-deal scenario would raise trade barriers and prompt a fall in inward migration and productivity output.


    "The imposition of tariffs and the sterling depreciation raise inflation and squeeze real household incomes, but the Monetary Policy Committee is able to cut Bank Rate to support demand," the report said.


    It added that the Bank of England could think about lowering interest rates to counter inflation.


    The UK had originally been slated to leave the bloc on March 29 but the process was delayed as the outgoing Prime Minister Theresa May failed to get backing for her withdrawal deal.


    She is due to be replaced by one of the two leadership contenders by the end of the month.


    Whoever takes over the Conservative Party and the office of Prime Minister will have to immediately tackle the issue of withdrawing from the EU. Brussels has until now stood firm that it would not compromise on the withdrawal deal.


    The EU's top Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said the UK would have to "face the consequences" if it decides to quit the bloc without an agreement.


    He told the BBC that May's Brexit policy, which failed to make it through parliament three times, was the only way to ensure a smooth departure.


    May faced backlash from members of her party who thought her withdrawal deal offered too many concessions to the EU.

    MORE International ARTICLES

    Imran Khan Bowled A Googly Over Kartarpur Corridor Inauguration: Shah Mehmood Qureshi

    Shah Mahmood Qureshi’s remarks came a day after External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj categorically ruled out the possibility of resumption of bilateral talks with Pakistan unless it stops cross-border terror activities against India.

    Imran Khan Bowled A Googly Over Kartarpur Corridor Inauguration: Shah Mehmood Qureshi

    US Capital Pays Tribute To Mahatma Gandhi On 150th Birth Anniversary

    The Indian Embassy organised the event in association with over half a dozen Indian-American organisations.

    US Capital Pays Tribute To Mahatma Gandhi On 150th Birth Anniversary

    India To Play Larger Role At Europe's Nuclear Research Organisation CERN

    Talking about how India has now become an active CERN member, she said, "India has been at CERN since the 1970s and Indian scientists have been participating at CERN because of a huge talent pool in the country.

    India To Play Larger Role At Europe's Nuclear Research Organisation CERN

    Pakistan Premier Imran Khan Says Ready For Talks With Pm Modi

    Pakistan Premier Imran Khan Says Ready For Talks With Pm Modi
    Khan was apparently referring to India’s stance that terrorism and talks cannot go together and Pakistan must take effective and credible action to stop providing shelter and support to cross border terrorism from territories under its control.

    Pakistan Premier Imran Khan Says Ready For Talks With Pm Modi

    Canadian Astronaut Says Launch Most Dangerous Part Of Upcoming Space Mission

    Canadian Astronaut Says Launch Most Dangerous Part Of Upcoming Space Mission
    MONTREAL — Canadian astronaut David Saint-Jacques is bracing for some tense moments during next Monday's launch of the Soyuz rocket that will send him and two others to the International Space Station.

    Canadian Astronaut Says Launch Most Dangerous Part Of Upcoming Space Mission

    Trump Derides Lawyer Michael Cohen As 'Weak Person' After Bombshell Guilty Plea

    Trump Derides Lawyer Michael Cohen As 'Weak Person' After Bombshell Guilty Plea
    WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump is deriding Michael Cohen as a "weak person" after his former lawyer's bombshell admission that he lied to Congress last year about an abandoned plan to build a Trump Tower in Moscow.

    Trump Derides Lawyer Michael Cohen As 'Weak Person' After Bombshell Guilty Plea