Pierre Poilievre has chosen one of the safest possible places to make his return to the House of Commons — but the rural Alberta riding he's hoping to win in an August byelection could also be dangerous territory for the Conservative leader.
Damien Kurek resigned his seat in Battle River—Crowfoot earlier this month after winning more than 82 per cent support in the April 28 election.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has set Aug. 18 as the date for the byelection to choose Kurek's replacement.
In an emailed statement, Poilievre said it would be an "honour" to represent the riding and he plans to continue "fighting for oil and gas, low taxes, free enterprise, a strong defence and respect for the West."
"The farmers, energy workers and soldiers of Battle River—Crowfoot feed, power and protect Canada," Poilievre said.
"I will work hard and with humility to earn the support of the amazing people in this extraordinary region.”
While almost no one expects Poilievre to lose, the decision to run in this particular part of the country has some analysts scratching their heads.
"It sounded like he was looking for some sort of cakewalk byelection where he could easily get in, but he may have had a miscalculation there," said Janet Brown, a pollster and political commentator based in Calgary.
"What may have seemed like an easy riding on the surface is going to look more complicated."
Separatist sentiment has been on the rise in Alberta since the Liberals managed an election win that seemed unlikely, if not impossible, just six months ago.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's government has introduced a bill to make it easier to launch a citizen-initiated referendum, including a vote on separating from Canada.
A group called the Alberta Prosperity Project has pledged to push for a referendum on the question, "Do you agree that the province of Alberta shall become an independent country and cease to be a province of Canada?"
Former Conservative cabinet minister Stockwell Day has said he thinks a referendum is a good idea.
Provinces cannot unilaterally separate from the country. Even if a referendum vote did succeed — something that no poll suggests is likely — Alberta would have to enter lengthy negotiations with the other provinces, the federal government and Indigenous groups.
Smith said on Thursday that she's "never seen such a high level of separatist sentiment," and warned about the results of a provincial byelection in Olds—Didsbury—Three Hills last week, where a separatist candidate got just shy of 18 per cent of the vote.
The premier also said the problem "is really in Ottawa's hands" and challenged the Carney government to scrap the proposed emissions cap and repeal the West Coast tanker ban.
The town of Trochu is within both Battle River—Crowfoot and Olds—Didsbury—Three Hills, meaning residents are now set to cast their third set of ballots in five months.
Barry Kletke has been mayor of Trochu for 21 years. Speaking as a resident, not as the mayor, he said he worried that the separatist candidate might make headway in the provincial race.
He said he would be happy to have Poilievre as the area's MP for one term but hopes the Conservative leader doesn't "get caught down the rabbit hole of separation."
"I think he's going to wear the 'proud to be Canadian' hat, and I hope that's the message," he said.
Kletke said Smith's tendency to talk about the threat of separation is "going to come back and bite us in the butt one of these days."
Brown said the results of her most recent poll suggest a third of Albertans believe their province would be better off if it left Canada, and 29 per cent of respondents said they would vote to separate in a referendum.
"It's not a majority but it's not an insignificant fringe," she said.
As a result, she said, even if Poilievre wants to avoid talking about it, "separatists will want to bait him into that conversation and his opponents will want to bait him in that conversation too."
Kory Teneycke, the co-founder and CEO of Rubicon Strategy and a conservative strategist, agreed Poilievre is about to be dragged into a debate that is "entirely unhelpful for the federal Conservative party."
Poilievre has said he opposes separation. On May 13, he told reporters Albertans have "a lot of legitimate grievances."
"Albertans want to be part of a united Canada but they deserve to be treated with respect, and they deserve to be honoured for the immense contribution to this country, and I will be a unifier," Poilievre said at a press conference on Parliament Hill.
Teneycke said Poilievre should be openly opposing a referendum and saying that "this is bad for Alberta and this is bad for Canada to even be having this conversation."
It's not yet clear if candidates from any separatist parties will run against Poilievre in the byelection.
What is clear is that the conversation won't be limited to the campaign. If Poilievre wins, he will become an MP from Alberta — and he will have to keep talking about the issue.
"That's a dangerous territory for a Conservative leader to be operating in," Teneycke said.
Poilievre represented the Ottawa-area riding of Carleton for more than 20 years before losing to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy in the April election.
He's pledged to work to earn the support of his new riding, which includes the communities of Drumheller, Wainwright, Camrose and a large chunk of the Alberta-Saskatchewan border.
The Conservative electoral district association in Battle River—Crowfoot did not respond to a request for comment for this story. Poilievre was not made available for an interview.
Poilievre's social media shows he and Kurek have been knocking on doors and holding town halls in the area. He's posted photos and videos from the Wainwright Stampede, local legions and a charity barbecue.
But the Tory leader isn't planning to stay for long. Kurek told reporters he plans to run again in the next general election.
Where that will leave Poilievre in the next election is not clear. For now, his focus is on getting back into Parliament when it resumes sitting on Sept. 15.
Picture Courtesy: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
