A report from Canada's chief actuary suggests Alberta would not be entitled to more than half of the Canada Pension Plan's assets that the province has argued it should get if it were to leave the investment fund.
The chief actuary’s paper, published Friday, says the calculation that claims Alberta should get 53 per cent — or $334 billion — of the $575-billion in CPP assets “does not respect” federal pension legislation.
The $334-billion estimate comes from a report commissioned by the Alberta government in 2023 from consultants LifeWorks.
Instead, the chief actuary agreed with the interpretation of University of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe, who had pegged Alberta’s share at between 20 and 25 per cent of total assets.
“It is a complete rejection of the formula used in the LifeWorks report," said Tombe, adding that he, like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, was disappointed the report didn't contain more detailed data.
However, Tombe said Smith's frustration over not getting a dollar figure is disingenuous because the report provides a simple formula to arrive at one.
"This is not hard. We can have this assigned to some high school students to calculate, and they could do it," he said, adding provincial officials have likely already calculated a number.
Smith reiterated Thursday that her government wouldn't consider moving forward with a referendum on the issue until it had a firm number from Ottawa.
"We were under the impression that the chief actuary was hiring three different analysts to look at the legislation, to be able to get three very precise ways of looking at this issue, so that we had a precise number," Smith said at an unrelated news conference.
Applying data from the LifeWorks report to the formula provided by the chief actuary would suggest Alberta's share would be about $135 billion, Tombe said.
However, he noted that CPP assets grow and shrink all the time, so any estimate could quickly become irrelevant.
Chief Actuary Assia Billig wrote that the LifeWorks formula would split up the CPP pie by leaving some provinces with a net negative allocation — an arrangement that would go against the wording of federal legislation.
That position, the report says, is consistent with the findings of an independent advisory council. Four of the five panel members ultimately sided with Tombe's approach.
Tombe said the LifeWorks estimate calculated what Alberta would be entitled to if it had an independent provincial pension plan beginning at the same time as the inception of the CPP in 1966.
Smith has long argued Albertans are getting a raw deal under the CPP.
Her United Conservative Party government spent $7.5 million on a public campaign touting the benefits of a provincial plan, including the possibility of lower contributions and higher payouts to retirees.
It also struck a public panel to speak directly to Albertans on the issue but later set it on the back burner pending a federal estimate.
Tombe said it's worth having a public debate about the potential risks and rewards of a provincial pension plan, but the Alberta government should be transparent about its methods.
"The challenge for the government is that the poll numbers didn't move at all, even with a completely exaggerated set of benefits," he said.
Last week, a spokesperson for the federal finance department said it, along with the provinces and territories, are reviewing the findings from the chief actuary.
“Discussions will take place between the government of Canada and provinces and territories over the coming weeks regarding the report and possible next steps,” the spokesperson said.
