1. What was your reaction when you heard the news of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation?
I was not very surprised. The pressure on him to resign had been mounting for some time. His low approval ratings have little to do with specific policies; he is not the first PM to suffer a significant drop in approval ratings following a long period in power.
2. Calls have been mounting for PM Trudeau’s resignation for some time now. Do you feel that if he had resigned earlier, it would have served the Liberal Party better?
Perhaps, but not necessarily. Had he resigned soon after the 2021 election, the party would likely be in better shape today. Once his approval ratings started to sink to historic lows, it was already too late.
3. Who should people watch in the leadership race, and how long will it take?
It will likely be shorter than the Liberal Party would like because of Parliament's looming March 24th resumption. It is hard to imagine that a new leader is not in place before then. I believe the new leader will be either Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland. There are other viable contenders, but it is hard to imagine any of them overtaking the two presumptive frontrunners. Christy Clark’s interest in the job is noteworthy in British Columbia because she is a former premier in this province. Her ascension to the Liberal leadership could combat the narrative that the Liberal Party caters to Quebec and Ontario.
4. What is the biggest challenge for the new Liberal leader, and what must the party do to prepare for the next election? Could we see an early election?
An election before October is very likely. The opposition parties have made it clear they plan to bring down the government through a non-confidence motion when the House resumes on March 24th. This would put us on track for an April or early May election. The Liberal Party is one of the most successful political parties among liberal democracies, and it has won elections by practicing a brokerage or “catch-all” style of politics. Part of that strategy involves shifting its ideology to fit the political mood. The Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau presents a left-of-center image to the public, focusing on expensive national initiatives, such as $10-a-day daycare and pharmacare, and progressive social issues. Carney presents an attractive option to many because he could be sold as fiscally responsible, and he has not expressed views on social issues that could be construed as too progressive or ‘woke.’ His challenge is his lack of experience in retail politics. On the other hand, Freeland has the challenge of distancing herself from Trudeau. Her resignation and statement demonstrated her independence, which many Canadians noted. The key to her success is whether she can focus the public on her triumphs–such as the NAFTA renegotiation during Trump 1.0.
5. What’s PM Trudeau’s legacy?
That depends on who you ask. His supporters will point to his pandemic spending, which many economists praised for staving off a deep recession and preventing widespread impoverishment. They will also point out that the Canada Child Benefit started a downward trend in child poverty, that his $10-a-day daycare plan has helped families cope with rising expenses and enabled many parents to remain or re-enter the labor force, and that he dealt admirably with Trump 1.0. His detractors will highlight the numerous integrity issues that marred his government, such as the WE charity scandal and SNC-Lavalin affair, and that he is leaving the country with a massive deficit and cost-of-living crisis. Political legacies are tricky. We tend to focus on the bad in the immediate aftermath but see the good in the long term.
6. In your opinion, what was PM Trudeau’s most significant failure during his tenure?
His failure to reform Canada’s electoral system. Shifting Canada to a proportional electoral system was a cornerstone of his 2015 campaign. Single-member plurality perversely incentivizes many Canadians to ‘strategically vote’ when their preferred candidate or party cannot earn a plurality in their riding. It also often leads to majority governments who receive less than 50% of the popular vote.
7. PM Trudeau’s leadership was marred by confrontation with India. Do you feel we have turned the page with his resignation regarding Canada/India relations?
It is difficult to say because Canada’s relationship with India is not currently high on the agenda, given the concrete and existential threats posed by Trump 2.0.
8. With the House of Commons prorogued until March 24th, some key Liberal legislation may not pass, such as The Online Harms Act or increasing the capital gains tax inclusion rate. Will these pieces of legislation die on the order paper?
Yes, these Bills will have to be reintroduced upon the resumption of Parliament. If the government falls and we have an election, a Conservative majority government is the probable outcome, and that government is unlikely to re-introduce these pieces of legislation.
9. How risky is the road for Canada/US relations, especially when there has been talk of Canada becoming a 51st state?
Canada is experiencing economic uncertainty, but there is no need to panic. Trump’s negotiating tactics are well-known, and he has stated he would not use military force to annex Canada. He perceives a trade imbalance between Canada and the United States, and it is our government's job to demonstrate the value of the special economic relationship. Most economists and observers agree that tariff walls would harm both countries.
10. What message would you like to share with our readers during such an uncertain time in federal politics?
Canada’s democracy remains robust, and we continue to have one of the highest living standards in the world. However, we should be wary of increasing polarization and vigilant about educating our youth to seek out legitimate sources of information about politics.
