Experts are casting doubt on U.S. President Donald Trump's ability to ban new Canadian-made aircraft from American skies in a proposed move that would deal a blow to plane makers, airlines and travellers on both sides of the border.
Regulatory authority for plane certification in the U.S. rests with the Federal Aviation Administration, former Canadian Transportation Agency member Jean-Denis Pelletier said.
"The FAA is controlling the certification," he said. "Mr. Trump has no authority to do that."
Trump singled out Bombardier Inc. on Thursday in a threat to decertify and tariff Canadian-made aircraft, marking the latest escalation of trade tensions between the two countries.
He alleged in a Truth Social post that Canada has refused to certify four types of business jets made by Bombardier-rival Gulfstream, based in Savannah, Ga., framing the decision to hold off as illegal.
"We are hereby decertifying their Bombardier Global Expresses, and all Aircraft made in Canada, until such time as Gulfstream, a Great American Company, is fully certified, as it should have been many years ago," Trump said.
The U.S. administration later tempered that statement, indicating the ban would apply only to new aircraft rather than the more than 5,400 Canadian-built planes and helicopters registered in the United States.
"Subsequent clarifications by administration officials suggest that Canadian-made aircraft in operation already would not be grounded due to a move to decertify,” said National Bank analyst Cameron Doerksen. A White House official confirmed to The Canadian Press that only aircraft that have yet to roll off the assembly line would be affected.
Aircraft assembled in Canada include Bombardier luxury jets and regional planes, A220 single-aisle jets made by French aerospace giant Airbus and helicopters from Texas-based Bell Textron. De Havilland Aircraft of Canada also produces the Dash 8-400 turboprop as well as a number of other aircraft.
Historically, aircraft groundings by regulators have related strictly to safety reasons. The Boeing 737 Max 8 was banned from the skies for 20 months during the first Trump administration due to safety issues.
"Threatening action by a safety regulator for political purposes would set a dangerous precedent in the aerospace industry — the FAA may not even have legal authority to ground a plane at the whim of the president," Doerksen said.
The prospect of decertifying new planes even as identical aircraft already in service retain their airworthiness posed another head-scratcher.
"This is really strange, because certification of aircraft is a very, very long process. It takes years," said Ross Aimer, CEO of California-based Aero Consulting Experts.
Canada has not certified the Gulfstream G700 or G800 business jets, with de-icing noted as a possible issue.
Canadian regulators typically follow their counterparts in the U.S. and Europe, where the planes have received the green light.
But the U.S. certificate is conditional. Gulfstream has until the end of this year to prove that the two plane models function “properly under the probable operating conditions where ice may form in the fuel system,” according to a temporary exemption granted by the FAA in January 2024.
The U.S. aviation sector would take a bit hit if Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian aerospace shipments, industry players warned.
Bombardier said it employs 3,000 people across nine sites south of the border and has 2,800 U.S. suppliers. The company's jets typically boast at least 40 per cent U.S. content.
Meanwhile, the U.S. enjoys a large trade surplus with Canada in aerospace, meaning the general trade imbalance Trump has cited to justify other levies does not apply.
The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers highlighted the tight-woven integration of the sector's supply chains between the neighbouring countries.
David Chartrand, who heads the union's Canadian contingent, stressed that politics should have no influence over safety matters.
"Aircraft certification must remain independent and grounded in safety, not politics. Politically motivated decertification would create instability, threaten thousands of jobs on both sides of the border, and undermine the integrity of the aviation system we all depend on,” he said.
Pelletier called for calm, while warning about the economic risks should the groundings and tariff go ahead.
"I don’t think we have to panic,” he said. "But this would affect very dangerously our economy in Quebec."
Picture Courtesy: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi
