The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales in April fell 9.8 per cent compared with the same month last year, as the national housing market has returned "to the quiet markets we’ve experienced since 2022."
A total of 44,300 residential properties changed hands across Canada last month, compared with 49,135 in April 2024.
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, home sales last month ticked down 0.1 per cent.
CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart said tariff-related uncertainty is continuing to keep buyers on the sidelines, similar to how high interest rates chilled demand during the second half of 2022 and much of 2023 before the Bank of Canada began cutting.
Tim Hill, a real estate agent with Re/Max All Points Realty, said many buyers are waiting for certainty as to what Canada's trade relationship with the U.S. will look like — and any potential trickle-down effects on their employment status — before making their move.
"When it does come to the tariff side of it, I think it's just people being scared of, 'What if I buy a home now and the home value goes down?'" he said.
"I think a lot of people get hesitant whenever they think the market could go down."
Hill said that lack of confidence could linger for some time, noting how "volatile" sentiment has been since U.S. President Donald Trump was elected.
"Even if we get certainty ... could something change anyways down south?"
The association said new listings fell one per cent month-over-month.
There were 183,000 properties listed for sale across Canada at the end of April, up 14.3 per cent from a year earlier but still below the long-term average for the month of around 201,000 listings.
It said increased supply levels are being driven by higher inventories in B.C. and Ontario, while tight inventories remain everywhere else.
"Given the increasing potential for a rough economic patch ahead, the risk going forward will be if an average number of people trying to sell their homes turns into a large number of people who have to sell their homes, and that’s something we have not seen in decades," Cathcart said in a news release.
Hill, who is based in Vancouver, said supply has been accumulating in that market and "it's just not selling as quickly" in the current economic environment.
"We're seeing increased inventory with very stagnant demand," he said.
"It's just compiled. There's been ... some hesitation out there and a lot of uncertainty."
The actual national average sale price of a home sold in April was $679,866, down 3.9 per cent from a year ago. CREA's own home price index, which aims to represent the sale of typical homes, fell 1.2 per cent from March.
TD economist Rishi Sondhi called April "another subdued month" for home sales.
"Economic uncertainty likely continued to keep potential buyers sidelined," he said in a note.
"With last month's soft showing (and weak momentum heading into the quarter) we're currently tracking another decline in Canadian home sales in Q2 following their sizable first-quarter contraction."
Last month, CREA downgraded its forecast for home sales this year, saying total transactions would likely be on par with 2024 — a steep cut from its January forecast of an 8.6 per cent increase in 2025.
Sondhi said that could lead to more pent-up demand, which had already been building in Ontario and B.C. before the Canada-U.S. trade war began.
"History shows that Canadian housing markets can surge after lulls, so if confidence improves later in the year (which is our view), the market could see sales pop," he said.
"However, Canadian average home price growth is likely to remain a laggard for much of the year, given very loose supply/demand balances in B.C. and Ontario."
Picture Courtesy: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
