Cheaper prices at the gas pumps and grocery store helped bring down inflation in October, Statistics Canada said Monday.
The annual rate of inflation cooled to 2.2 per cent in October — a tick higher than economists’ expectations but down from 2.4 per cent in September.
Gas prices fell 4.8 per cent on a monthly basis in October as retailers switched to cheaper winter blends of fuel and global crude oil prices dropped on concerns of oversupply.
Prices at the grocery store also fell 0.6 per cent in October, the largest month-to-month decline since September 2020.
Prices for food purchased from the grocery store rose 3.4 per cent on an annual basis, cooling from four per cent in September.
StatCan said that deceleration was driven by cooling costs for some food preparations — mostly processed foods — and fresh vegetables, but bigger price hikes on fresh and frozen chicken moderated the decline.
BMO chief economist Doug Porter suggested in a note to clients Monday that the end of the bulk of Canada's retaliatory tariffs on the United States in September helped deliver some relief on grocery bills last month.
Keeping the overall inflation rate sticky in October was a rare increase in cellular service costs. StatCan said this segment saw prices rise 7.7 per cent annually, the first yearly increase since April 2023.
Consumers were also paying more for home, mortgage and car insurance in October, particularly in Alberta, the agency said. Over the past five years, the cost of home and mortgage insurance has risen 38.9 per cent nationally, while vehicle insurance premiums are up 18.9 per cent.
The October inflation report marks the Bank of Canada’s last look at price data before its final interest rate decision of the year on Dec. 10.
The central bank’s benchmark interest rate stands at 2.25 per cent following cuts at back-to-back meetings in September and October.
Bank of Canada officials signalled last month they may be done with rate cuts in the near term unless economic data surprises them.
Porter said there were some signs of trouble with core inflation excluding food and energy ticking higher in October, but other underlying price pressures showed either modest easing or stubbornness.
He said there is little in the October report to suggest that underlying price pressures have changed meaningfully since the Bank of Canada's last two decisions — supporting BMO's call that the central bank will move to the sidelines in December.
CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham said in a note that while the headline inflation rate cooled, the Bank of Canada would need to see a more sustained period of price slowdowns to adjust rates again.
"We continue to forecast no change in the overnight rate through to the end of next year," Grantham said.
Picture Courtesy: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
