A dramatic decline in international study permits issued last year is quickly becoming an existential threat to the finances of Canadian post-secondary schools, say organizations representing the institutions.
"The drop in international students is like an earthquake hitting an education system that's already structurally weakened by years of underinvestment," said Gabriel Miller, president and CEO of Universities Canada.
Provinces where international permit allocations were increased last year are also experiencing a decline in international enrolment, creating gaps in budgets that may lead to program cuts.
The federal government said last week that Canada issued about 40 per cent fewer international study permits among kindergarten to Grade 12, post-secondary and postgraduate students last year, overshooting its 35-per-cent target.
This year, it's seeking a further 10-per-cent reduction.
A recent report from ApplyBoard, an online marketplace for learning institutions, said the number of permits approved for college students likely dropped by about 60 per cent, while approvals for international undergraduate students fell about 40 per cent.
The total number of international study permits issued by Ontario was also essentially cut in half by the cap. ApplyBoard said it's projected the province had a 55 per cent decline in international permit approvals for 2024.
The dramatic decrease led Toronto's Centennial College to suspend 49 full-time programs. The University of Winnipeg recently cut its women's soccer team and English language program to find cost savings, citing pressure from lower international enrolment.
Alberta's quota for international students was boosted by about 10 per cent last year, but it's expected to see a 30 per cent decline in total study permit approvals when the 2024 data is tallied, said the ApplyBoard report.
Meti Basiri, co-founder and CEO of ApplyBoard, said the federal government's new policies aiming to cut the number of international students have caused confusion and uncertainty for students planning to continue their studies in Canada.
"That's pretty much all across every single level, whether that's PhD, master's, primary — even the programs or levels (and) institutions that were not part of any of these policy changes," he said.
Basiri said the decline of international students has forced many colleges and universities in Canada to cut programs and close campuses, which means fewer programs for domestic students in the coming years.
"Domestic tuition fees (are) going to go higher," he added.
Miller said the numbers are a "big, bright, flashing yellow light for the country."
The cap will hurt Canada in the long-term by forcing it to lose out on future workers, he said.
Universities have already been teetering due to various decisions made by provincial governments that have inhibited their ability to create revenue, Miller said.
The Ontario government, for example, has frozen tuition for domestic students until at least 2027, though it injected more than $1.2 billion in one-time funding last year in response to federal immigration reforms. In Alberta, cuts to the provincial post-secondary budget have led to significant tuition increases for domestic students.
Plummeting international enrolment and governments' funding decisions will likely result in layoffs, larger class sizes and hiring freezes, Miller said.
"A major drop in international student enrolment represents a fundamental change in the funding system for Canadian universities," he said.
"And unless that system now is repaired by governments, we're not going to be able to meet the need for education among our own native-born population."
The University of Calgary welcomed nearly nine per cent fewer international students last fall than in the fall of 2023, the school said in a statement.
It said the drop equates to an impact of about $11 million on tuition revenue for the year. It didn't say how it would be affected. "This impact will grow over time, as students would have been anticipated to attend over multiple years."
The university said in a statement that while it's too early to speculate on the cap's impact, it will "certainly lead to a budgetary shortfall, the full extent of which is currently being assessed."
Ermia Rezaei-Afsah, president of the University of Calgary students' union, said several programs at the school have been frozen.
"We're seeing that the caps are working better than they're intended to," Rezaei-Afsah said.
"It's going to get worse in 2025," he said. "The reputational damage is immense."
Pari Johnston, president and CEO of Colleges and Institutes Canada, said it has been warning about the "devastating" impacts from the reforms.
"Canadian student access to high-demand programs, the training and talent pipeline employers depend on, and local research and innovation capacity are all at risk," Johnston said.
The federal government has maintained that funding challenges related to the cap are not its problem.
Immigration Minister Marc Miller said in December that the government "didn't tell any university or college to charge international students four or five times what we charge domestic students."
