The Housing Market Outlook includes forecasts for important housing market variables such as starts, prices, resales, vacancy rates and rents.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation presents forecasts for key housing demand drivers such as population, employment, migration, earnings, and mortgage rates.
Below are the higlights from the latest CMHC report:
- Variables impacting the housing market will gradually return to pre-COVID levels over the 2021 to 2023 period.
- The level of existing home sales and price growth are forecast to moderate from unsustainable 2020 levels but will remain elevated.
We forecast that by late 2023, the pace of rising home prices will slow down from 2020 highs. While the pace of prices won’t rise as quickly, prices themselves will still stay high. pic.twitter.com/tMka0az80u— CMHC (@CMHC_ca) May 6, 2021
- The pace of sales is expected to moderate from recent highs. Slower sales growth will help moderate the pace of price growth.
- Rental demand will recover as immigration recovers, but vacancy rates will likely remain elevated.
- Housing starts will stabilize at levels consistent with household formation by the end of 2023.
- The precise timing and speed of the economic recovery in major markets is highly uncertain and outlooks remain subject to significant risks.