Prime Minister Mark Carney's government says Canada's support for Ukraine is resolute ahead of talks today between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump has arranged the talks in Anchorage, Alaska, to discuss a possible land swap between territories held by Ukraine and those claimed by Russia, despite not including Kyiv in the talks.
The Kremlin says the talks are set to start this morning at 11:30 local time, which is 3:30 p.m. ET.
Putin’s foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, told reporters that Trump and Putin will first sit down for a one-on-one meeting followed by a meeting between the two delegations. Then talks will continue over "a working breakfast."
A joint news conference will follow, Ushakov said, though Trump later said no decisions have been made about holding a news conference with Putin.
Trump said Thursday there was a 25 per cent chance that today's summit would fail, but he also floated the idea that, if the meeting succeeds, he could bring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Alaska for a subsequent, three-way meeting.
Trump warned Wednesday of "very severe consequences" for Russia if Putin doesn’t agree to stop his invasion of Ukraine after today's meeting, and also said Thursday he might be willing to stay in Alaska beyond Friday, depending on what happens with Putin.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov tamped down expectations for any breakthroughs from the Friday summit, saying there were no plans to sign documents and that it would be a "big mistake" to predict the results of the negotiations, according to Russian news outlet Interfax.
Both Zelenskyy and the Europeans have worried that the bilateral U.S.-Russia summit would leave them and their interests sidelined, and that any conclusions could favour Moscow and leave Ukraine and Europe's future security in jeopardy by emboldening Russia to pursue more invasions.
Prime Minister Mark Carney took part in talks Wednesday with European leaders, and spoke directly with Zelenskyy on Monday. He said Canada's partners are "united on shared principles," particularly that Ukrainians must decide on their own future.
"Diplomatic efforts must be reinforced by military and economic pressure on Russia to end its unjustified war of aggression," Carney wrote Monday on social media.
"We welcome the leadership of the United States in working toward securing a just and lasting peace in Ukraine."
Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand spoke with her Ukrainian counterpart Thursday, and said borders can't be changed by violence.
"We will continue to support Ukraine through diplomatic measures, military assistance and economic aid to hold Russia accountable for its illegal war," she wrote on social media, adding that Canada's support is "unwavering."
Analysts say western solidarity with Ukraine is crucial, as Putin seeks to break the resolve that NATO alliance members have shown.
Eitvydas Bajarunas, a former Lithuanian ambassador to Russia, told an online panel Thursday that the best thing countries like Canada can do is show unwavering commitment, because Moscow is betting western allies will eventually splinter.
"Putin (has) understood his strength is to outsmart the West, to outmanoeuvre the West, to wait until the West starts to crumble," Bajarunas told the Center for European Policy Analysis think tank.
"One of the goals of Putin is definitely to put a wedge into American-European relations, and to use all methods, including hybrid warfare and disinformation, to manipulate public opinion."
Olga Tokariuk, a Kyiv-based fellow with that think tank, told the panel that an optimal scenario for Ukraine would be if Moscow and Washington have no agreement Friday, "if there is like no pressure in Ukraine to make any territorial concessions."
Even better for Ukraine would be fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia, if Trump feels Putin is stalling, she said.
"This war is not about territories of Ukraine. Russia has vast territories of its own," she said. "This war is about that destruction of Ukraine as a sovereign and independent state, as a state aligned with the West, as a democracy."
In recent days, Putin has expanded the scope of what the talks involve, including themes like nuclear arms control and "long-term conditions of peace between our countries, and in Europe, and in the world as a whole."
Jason Israel, a former adviser with the U.S. National Security Council, said Moscow is trying to paint Russia and the U.S. as influential countries that have restored relations after years of diplomatic chill.
He told the panel that if there is any agreement on Ukraine Friday such as a ceasefire, it remains unclear how such a deal would be implemented, as European leaders are not at the table and haven't consented to actually putting such a ceasefire into place.
Kyiv has long insisted that safeguards against future Russian attacks provided by its Western allies would be a precondition for achieving a durable end to the fighting. Yet many Western governments have been hesitant to commit military personnel.
Countries in the coalition, which includes France and the U.K., have been trying for months to secure U.S. security backing, should it be required.
Picture Courtesy: Alexei Nikolsky, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP
