The Liberal party's political upheaval and Donald Trump's return to the White House have Ukrainian-Canadians hoping Ottawa's support for Ukraine remains firm.
"We think that Canada is at its best when we have a cross-party, all-party consensus on Ukraine," said Ihor Michalchyshyn, executive director of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress.
At a meeting in Germany on Thursday of the Ukrainian Defence Contact Group, Defence Minister Bill Blair announced details of $440 million in Canadian funding for Ukraine promised earlier this year.
But even as Canada and other NATO allies make medium-term commitments to Ukraine's defence, some observers say they worry about sustaining that support over the longer term.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Monday he'll step down as Liberal leader once his successor is chosen. That news came just weeks after the resignation of his deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland, the most prominent Ukrainian-Canadian in federal politics.
Both Trudeau and Freeland made advocating for Ukraine a key part of Canada's stance on the world stage — particularly after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which will reach its third anniversary next month.
U.S. president-elect Donald Trump takes office later this month. He has both praised Russian President Vladimir Putin for taking over Ukrainian territory and criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his country.
Trump has said he would bring peace to the region early in his term. Some analysts suggest he means to pressure Ukraine to surrender more land to Russia.
Michalchyshyn said his group will be watching the Liberal leadership race and this year's general election to ensure all parties continue to back Ukraine.
"We would be worried if we saw candidates, or political leaders or MPs of whatever party, going off and speaking against that consensus, and making contrarian statements and pushing us in the direction of less support for Ukraine," he said.
"I'm not terribly concerned that any particular leadership candidate or a member of another political party will switch tactics."
Michalchyshyn said Trudeau left an positive legacy in his government's advocacy for Ukraine, despite delays in delivering promised gear. The Conservatives have pushed the government to send more weapons to Ukraine and support European efforts to wean the continent off Russian energy.
But former Alberta deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk said he's noticed that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre rarely speaks about Ukraine.
"I do worry about Canada's steadfast support for Ukraine, if ... Poilievre became the next prime minister and Trump proceeded with what he is saying he will proceed with," he said.
Lukaszuk, a former Alberta conservative MLA, said the federal Tories have voted against routine spending bills that included federal supports for Kyiv.
The Conservatives voted against a free-trade deal with Ukraine in 2023 because it included a clause on carbon pricing. That prompted the Liberals to launch attack ads accusing the Tories of siding with U.S. Republicans who oppose support for Kyiv.
While some Tory MPs talk frequently about Ukraine, Marcin Gabrys, chair of Canadian Studies at Jagiellonian University in Krakow, said he has noticed Poilievre rarely speaks about the country.
"That is something that worries me," said Gabrys.
Poilievre's office responded to a request for comment with a statement attributed to foreign affairs critic Michael Chong. In it, Chong criticized the Liberals' approach to Ukraine but did not address whether Poilievre talks enough about the country.
“Common-sense Conservatives have stood firmly with the people of Ukraine in their fight against Putin’s illegal invasion and our unwavering support continues to this day," reads Chong's statement.
Chong criticized the Liberals for allowing exemptions in their sanctions regime, such as the one that allowed Bombardier to import Russian titanium products.
In late 2022, at the request of the German government, the federal government issued a sanctions exemption that allowed a Montreal company to repair turbines for a natural gas pipeline operated by Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom.
"We will continue to hold the Liberals (to) account for their blatant disinformation and their pathetic attempts to distract and divide Canadians on this issue," Chong's statement reads.
Ukrainian Canadians make up about 3.5 per cent of Canada's population, but more than 10 per cent of the population in the three Prairie provinces.
Lukaszuk said the Conservatives' political dominance in that region means they're not likely to experience significant blowback over any shifts in Canada's support for Ukraine.
The Angus Reid Institute published a survey earlier this year suggesting overall support for Ukraine had waned. One in four Canadians told the pollster Canada was doing too much to help Ukraine in February 2024, compared with nine per cent who said that in May 2022.
That opinion was more common among Conservative voters, going from 19 per cent in May 2022 to 43 per cent last February.
Gabrys said the Trudeau government can be criticized over delays in military aid, and for falling short of the NATO military alliance's spending target. But he said Trudeau helped Ukraine by making sure it was a topic of conversation at any global summit he attended.
"When there is a change of approach from the United States, Canada is very much needed," he said.
Garry Keller, vice-president of the lobbying firm StrategyCorp and a chief of staff to former Conservative foreign minister John Baird, said Poilievre remains focused on the "very existential, local issues" that tend to decide elections — such as housing and affordability — rather than foreign policy.
The situation in Ukraine could shift drastically with Trump about to take office, making it less useful for a Canadian politician to comment just before an election campaign, Keller said.
"No matter our level of support for Ukraine … Canada is not going to be an outlier" against the U.S., he added.
