Here we go folks! The end of another spectacular NFL season is upon us as the Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots square off in Super Bowl LI. This marks the 2nd time ever in Atlanta’s history they reached the Super Bowl while on the other end of the spectrum, the Patriots play in the big game for the 9th time (most in the league). So without further ado, this is the breakdown for Super Bowl LI...
The Falcons are fresh off demolishing the hottest team in the league at the time; the Green Bay Packers. Their offense ranked near the top of the league in every major offensive category through the season. This should come as no surprise for some of you as they have put up gaudy numbers in these playoffs with 80 points in just 2 games, including a 36-point effort against the elite defense of Seattle.
Matt Ryan continues to be the catalyst for this electric offensive attack. He has thrown for 7 TDs and 0 INTs with a 70.7% completion rate and a 132.6 passer rating. Julio Jones, the #1 target man for Ryan, has played his way into serious talks as the best receiver in football. In these playoffs he has hauled in 15 catches for 247 yards and 3 TDs. The bell cow running back Devonta Freeman has put up 209 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs for the red and black completing the vaunted triple threat of Ryan – Jones – Freeman.
On the defensive side of the ball is where the Falcons’ main weaknesses lie. As you can see from the table, they rank near the bottom of every statistical category defensively. You also throw in the fact that they are missing their #1-star corner in Desmond Trufant and it looks even direr. There is a silver lining among the group however, as 2nd year standout Vic Beasley had an NFL best 15.5 sacks over the course of the season.
|
|
Atlanta |
New England |
|
Offense – Scoring |
1st |
3rd |
|
Offense – Yards |
2nd |
4th |
|
Offense – Passing |
3rd |
4th |
|
Offense – Rushing |
5th |
7th |
|
Defense – Scoring |
27th |
1st |
|
Defense – Yards |
25th |
8th |
|
Defense – Passing |
28th |
12th |
|
Defense – Rushing |
17th |
3rd |
The New England Patriots are in the Super Bowl yet again. This is their 7th appearance in 16 years now as future Hall of Famer Tom Brady aims to win his 5th championship, being only the second player to do so (Charles Haley). Brady did not have a spectacular start to the playoffs against a good Texans defense, but he was firing on all cylinders in the game with Pittsburgh. He threw for 384 yards with 3 TDs and a 127.5 passer rating.
The real story of that game was the breakout of receiver Chris Hogan. He had just over 1,600 yards total spread out over his 4 years in the league, but last game we caught 9 passes for 180 yards and 2 TDs.
The Patriots use a dynamic backfield with power runner LeGarrette Blount who had 18 TDs on the season, Dion Lewis the dual threat with a TD through the air and on the ground in the playoffs so far and receiving back James White.
The most impressive aspect of the New England season has been the high level of play from their defense. Logan Ryan has been surging with 16 tackles in the 2 playoff games and 3 INTs in his last 4 games. Malcolm Butler has also kept the secondary strong as they’ve held opposing QBs to a 65.4 passer rating during these playoffs.
The simple question for this game is “Who will win?” On one hand you have Atlanta with the best offense in football and the hunger that drives teams to win their 1st Super Bowl in franchise history. However, the Patriots offense is almost as successful as the Falcons while also maintaining top tier defensive stats as opposed to the Falcons having a liability in their defense. But one must note that the New England numbers have been quite inflated as a result of them having the 28th strongest schedule while Atlanta was playing much better teams with the 7th ranked schedule toughness. The Falcons need to get the offense churning and burning the clock, keeping Brady cold will keep him in check. The Patriots have to stop one of the Falcons’ weapons, and just take what that weak defense gives them. Now I am picking the Patriots to win but I’ll leave you with this stat; The Patriots are favoured by 3 points, and all previous 5 Super Bowl winners were the betting underdogs, so keep hope alive Atlanta!
My prediction: New England 27-23
