With less than a year to go until the 2026 World Cup, political tensions and U.S. policy threaten to pose problems as Canada, the United States and Mexico prepare to co-host the tournament.
Next year’s FIFA World Cup will be the biggest ever, with the three countries hosting a record 48 teams. Between June 11 and July 19, they will play 104 matches, most of them in the U.S.
With millions of fans expected to cross borders to attend the games, U.S. President Donald Trump’s harsh immigration policies — which include travel bans on some countries, immigration raids and mass deportations — are generating anxiety.
"This is all being driven by the United States. And we're entirely the guilty party here," said Victor Matheson, a professor at College of Holy Cross in Massachusetts who specializes in sports economics.
"You could have significant immigration problems with fans and players going across borders."
The U.S. has travel bans in place for 12 countries and restrictions in place for seven, and is considering banning travellers from another 36 countries.
Though there are exemptions for athletes, staff and families, the unpredictability of Trump’s administration means no one knows for certain what kind of rules might be in place by the time the tournament starts.
Economist Andrew Zimbalist, who wrote a book on the economics of hosting the World Cup, said Trump has the ability to make it difficult for people to travel, but it’s not clear whether he will actually do so.
"I think probably Trump himself might not have the answers because … he responds very impetuously to changes in his environment," he said.
Concerns about visas or political opposition to Trump might lead some soccer fans to decide not to attend at all, while others opt to attend the games in Canada instead, Zimbalist suggested. But he also pointed out that the quarter, semifinals and final are all taking place in the U.S.
A spokesperson for Canadian Heritage said Canada could see a million international visitors during the tournament.
"Given the tri-national nature of the event, it is anticipated that international and domestic travellers will move back and forth between Canada and the United States. The focus will continue to be on the flow of movement, the safety of travellers and the security of the borders," the spokesperson said.
A spokesperson for the Canada Border Services Agency said the agency is working closely with federal government departments, host cities and FIFA "in the safety and security planning for this international event."
Matheson said fans — particularly those from countries that have found themselves in Trump’s crosshairs — have good reasons to be worried.
"I would be very concerned about planning a vacation that has you travelling from Mexico or from Canada into the United States and back. I don't think that you can guarantee that vacation of a lifetime is actually going to be there for you to actually take," he said.
He said it’s one thing to be denied entry, another to end up in jail and deported — potentially to a prison in El Salvador.
"No one wants to go to the World Cup to watch some soccer games and then end up in jail," he said.
Trump’s moves to impose tariffs on much of the world, including Canada, could also affect the World Cup.
Matheson offered the example of someone who makes jerseys for a country’s team who would want to ship those jerseys across the border with the team.
"Tariffs make that type of inventory management pretty challenging," he said.
Tim Elcombe is a professor at Wilfrid Laurier University whose areas of expertise include sports, politics and international affairs. He said "there was a sense that having the event in Canada, the United States and Mexico would almost be a bit of a calming of the political waters," as the cup returned to Western countries.
Instead, he said, the 2026 tournament may be even more politically charged than the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
Canada is co-hosting one of world’s biggest sporting events with a country whose president has instigated a trade war and threatened annexation. Canadians have cut travel to the U.S. and stopped buying American products — and it’s not clear what all of that might mean for the World Cup.
While Vancouver and Toronto will host some games, "really this is an American-centric competition," Elcombe said.
"So how will Canadians feel about this? Will we get behind it? Will it become the event I think they were hoping it would be?"
In early July, labour and human rights groups, including Human Rights Watch, wrote to FIFA president Gianni Infantino to say U.S. policies under Trump pose a "serious threat" to individuals, especially non-citizens.
The letter accused FIFA of ignoring "the clear evidence of the significant deterioration of the rights climate in the United States."
Elcombe said while the United States is likely to take the brunt of scrutiny, Canada is not immune.
"Canada is going to have to be prepared for a very critical eye in terms of focus on some of the issues in Canada from a human rights perspective, because I think they will be exposed," he said, citing Canada’s relationship with Indigenous Peoples as one example.
MacIntosh Ross, a fellow at the Scott McCain and Leslie McLean Centre for Sport, Business and Health at Saint Mary's University, said Canada should put pressure on the U.S. government "to make sure that things happen in a safe or as safe a manner as possible."
"The Canadian organizers and the Canadian government need to be very clear about their expectations for their partners in this World Cup and reiterate them and state them over and over again," he said.
Elcombe noted Infantino, who has "very much established himself as a friend and supporter of President Trump," could be a key player in determining how the coming months unfold.
It’s difficult to predict what Trump might do, Zimbalist said. If there are political issues in the United States that he wants to distract people from, "you can see him doing crazier and crazier things internationally to get people's minds off of what's actually happening."
But Trump also has shown that he cares about the World Cup and looking good as he hosts the tournament.
"I think he does care about image and he does care about being on the world stage," Zimbalist said. "So I can see that being a significant deterrent, actually."
Picture Courtesy: AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin
