Analyst says Conservative leadership race has become 'more unpredictable and open'

All five remaining candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party of B.C. will face off against each other for the first time during a debate Friday in Vancouver. 

Former B.C. Liberal cabinet minister Iain Black, commentator Caroline Elliott, former federal MP Kerry-Lynne Findlay, current MLA Peter Milobar and entrepreneur Yuri Fulmer will debate for 90 minutes at the Canada Strong and Free Network conference. 

They are running to replace former leader John Rustad who left amid a caucus revolt in December. 

University of B.C. political science lecturer Stewart Prest says the stakes for today's debate are high, because the race has become "more unpredictable and open." 

He says a month ago, the race was boiling down to a contest between Milobar as the champion of "moderate" conservatism and Elliott as the "populist" front-runner.

But he says both of them now find themselves on the defensive: Elliott for skipping a debate which she said was unsanctioned by the party, and Milobar for questions about the involvement between his now-former campaign manager and an anti-Rustad website.

Mark Werner stepped back from his role as campaign manager just days after "preliminary discussions" with Werner "confirmed that he had no knowledge" of a mail-out and website that targeted Rustad and Richmond MLA Teresa Wat. 

Prest says this developments have opened up the door for Fulmer, noting that he has "found favour " with Vancouver Island MP Aaron Gunn, who helped to revive the party and remains an important voice even though he didn't run for the leadership. 

Prest says Fulmer's claim of having signed up more than 15,000 new members also points to a campaign that is serious, well-organized, and well-financed.

"So, these are all reasons to take it seriously," Prest says. 

The party announced this week that its membership has risen to more than 42,000 people since the start of the leadership campaign in December, when the party had around 7,000 members.

"The actual number of 15,000 doesn't automatically translate into votes for the candidate (Fulmer), although it is another reason to suspect that he will have significant support on early ballots," Prest says.

Picture Courtesy: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Handout Conservative Party of British Columbia