Budget watchdog predicts zero population growth this year

The parliamentary budget officer predicts Canada's rate of population growth will remain flat in 2026, mainly due to cuts to non-permanent resident admissions in the latest federal Immigration Levels Plan.

This would be the second year in a row with zero population growth in Canada, which follows several years of above-average growth years, including two record breaking years in 2022 and 2023.

Statistics Canada reported flat growth in 2025, with the PBO report finding any gains in population were offset by a decline in the non-permanent resident population of 382,000 people.

It said population growth averaged 1.1. per cent annually between 1972 and 2015, before it began to see greater increases driven primarily by immigration.

Growth hit a new record in 2022, when Canada's population grew by more than one million people for the first time in a single year. It exceeded that marker again in 2023, when annual population growth peaked at 3.1 per cent.

Statistics Canada data shows immigration-driven population growth in 2023 of 1.2 million people, with a combination of permanent and non-permanent arrivals.

The PBO analysis of annual immigration targets projects the government will hit its goal of reducing the population share of non-permanent residents from a peak of 7.6 per cent in October 2024 to less than five per cent by the end of 2027 — one year later than originally planned.

The federal immigration plan includes a dramatic cut to the number of new temporary work and student visas, from almost 674,000 in 2025 to 385,000 this year.

The plan sets a target of 380,000 permanent resident admissions annually between 2026 and 2028, with two one-time programs to fast-track permanent residency for 148,000 non-permanent residents over the next two years.

These one-time programs are focused on speeding up access to permanent residency for eligible people and some temporary workers.

The 2026 levels plan says one of those programs is meant for up to 115,000 individuals who can't return to their home countries and are already on track for permanent residency.

The other program looks to accelerate permanent residency status for up to 33,000 temporary workers who have put down "strong roots" and are employed in jobs that help to build the economy, says the levels plan.

The PBO predicts these one-time programs will play a significant role in reducing the number of non-permanent residents in Canada to less than five per cent of the population by the end of 2027.

The PBO report says while these two programs are in addition to the broader 380,000 person permanent resident target, the outflow of non-permanent residents is expected to offset population growth.

The PBO predicts the non-permanent resident population will decline by 385,000 this year, and by an additional 289,000 people in 2027.

The report notes about 80 per cent of this decline is expected to involve work permit holders leaving the country. The remaining decline projection is based on a combination of some student visa holders leaving and people becoming permanent residents.

The PBO report projects that Canada's population will grow by 0.3 per cent in 2027 before stabilizing at around 0.8 per cent annually in the medium term.

Picture Courtesy: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darren Calabrese