Canada surpasses 10 per cent vaccination mark

Canada's COVID-19 vaccine rollout has reached a double-digit milestone, as 11 per cent of the country's adult population is now at least partially protected from the virus.

Dr. Howard Njoo, Canada's deputy chief public health officer, announced on Thursday that the country had surpassed the 10 per cent mark of residents over 18 who have received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine.

While the benchmark seems small, experts say it's still a significant step in Canada's inoculation goals. But what does it mean in terms of slowing transmission of COVID-19 and eventually halting the pandemic?

Njoo said 11 per cent isn't enough to stop the spread of the virus, and more transmissible variants continue to pose a "significant threat" as widespread protection is still not established.

Jason Kindrachuk, a virologist with the University of Manitoba, says that although progress from Canada's vaccine program has been encouraging over the last month, more work needs to be done.

As parts of the country enter a third wave driven by more contagious variants, he adds Canadians can't "rest on our laurels."

"It's complicated, because we certainly want to be appreciative of achievements we've made, but we also need to be cognizant of ... increasing transmission rates and the incursion of variants," Kindrachuk said.

"So we need to really stay the course and get this done as expediently as possible."

Njoo said Thursday that more than 4.3 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered in Canada since the rollout began in mid-December.

A tracker from University of Saskatchewan student Noah Little shows more than 3.7 million Canadians have been inoculated, with some receiving their second shot.

Sixty per cent of Canadians over the age of 80, and 19 per cent of those aged 70 to 79 years have received at least one dose, Njoo said.

Maxwell Smith, a bioethicist at Western University who's also on Ontario's COVID vaccine task force, says that's a significant segment of the population to be fully or partially immunized against COVID-19.

Effects of Canada's vaccine rollout are already being felt in some areas, Smith says, including a "drastic reduction" in hospitalization and death among long-term care residents. He adds the third wave should "look quite different in terms of deaths," compared to previous waves, because of Canada's early efforts on vaccinating within long-term care.

"It's not just 10 per cent of the entire population, it really is the 10 per cent that are at greatest risk of death or serious outcomes, and those that interact with vulnerable patients," said Smith.

"So it is significant, but we can't pat ourselves on the back just yet."

A lull in shipments from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna in February caused major stalling before the country's rollout ramped up in recent weeks.

Little's tracker shows that Canada has administered an average of more than 136,000 doses per day from March 15 to 24.

The United States, meanwhile, has recently averaged 2.5 million doses per day, causing frustration among some Canadians looking to compare the countries.

But Smith says the U.S.'s efficiency stems from a supply of vaccine that's not matched in Canada.

Nearly six million vaccines have been delivered across Canada, including more than 2.2 million in Ontario and 1.3 million in Quebec.

As of Wednesday, Canada had doled out roughly 75 per cent of its available doses, comparable to the 77 per cent the U.S. had administered, according to data from The New York Times.

"That suggests we're efficiently rolling out those vaccines when we get them," Smith said.

Canada's most efficient vaccination day was Wednesday, when the country administered 170,604 vaccines.

That daily figure will likely increase as long as shipments of Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca continue to flow into the country, says infectious disease doctor Sumon Chakrabarti. Johnson & Johnson's single-dose vaccine, approved by Health Canada earlier this month, will hasten the rollout further once those shots begin arriving. Arrival dates for the first Johnson & Johnson vaccines have not yet been disclosed.

Chakrabarti says quick daily increases to the number of Canadians who are at least partially protected from COVID-19 could mitigate the seriousness of a third wave.

He expects the warmer weather brought on by spring to also work against unruly spread of the virus. But the impact of those factors remains to be seen.

"I think they have to count for something," Chakrabarti said. "It's very possible this will be a massive wave, but I don't think we necessarily know that yet.

"What we do know is there seem to be a lot more factors in our favour now compared to (the height of the second wave in) December and January."