Canada's recent flirtation with balmy temperatures will give way to spring's characteristically volatile weather, the Weather Network's chief meteorologist said, with a new seasonal forecast suggesting winter may still deliver some parting punches.
Spring may be slightly chillier in Western Canada but otherwise close to normal in the rest of the country, the forecast suggests. But prepare for the ups and downs of what's typically Canada's most fitful season, said the Weather Network's Chris Scott.
"Get ready for a wild ride," he said.
After some very early starts to the season in recent years, Scott says to be patient in the weeks ahead. There will be some warm days, he said, but likely no consistent stretches that will have flowers budding ahead of schedule.
Spring is the battleground between the lingering winter cold and the emerging sun's warmth that can deliver thunderstorms, tornadoes and snowstorms in short order, Scott said.
"That's why... we find it so fascinating because we can look at the next, say, seven to 10 days and go, 'wow, it's going to feel like May one set of days, it's going to feel like March the next.' But that is typical," he said.
It's shaping up to be a wet spring in both southern Ontario and Quebec, he said. It doesn't mean more rainy days necessarily, but some "pretty intense" storm systems could be on the horizon, Scott said.
The overall weather pattern is looking "very conducive" to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in what's known as the U.S. tornado alley, Scott said. It's too early to say whether that will translate into higher activity around southwestern Ontario, he said.
"But this spring season has the look of one where there's maybe a bit more potential of that than there has been before," Scott said.
Parts of Ontario, and cottage country in particular, could also face flood risks if heavy rainfall lines up with melting heavy snowpack, he said.
The above normal precipitation through April could cause delays to the start of planting season in Central Canada but with a reduced risk of frost damage, the forecast says.
Outside southern Ontario and Quebec, the only other areas expected to see above-normal precipitation this spring are British Columbia's central coast and northern New Brunswick, the forecast suggests. The rest of Canada is expected to see near-normal precipitation.
In British Columbia, cooler than normal temperatures paired with above normal precipitation in April could help extend the ski season, the forecast says. In May, temperatures and precipitation are then expected to trend back to seasonal.
The Prairies is not done with winter yet, despite the recent taste of spring-like weather, Scott said. The rest of March and April is expected to be on cooler side of seasonal, particularly in Alberta, but could be warmer than normal come May, the forecast says.
After several parts of Atlantic Canada dodged a "brutal winter," Scott says the region faces the risk of late winter-like storms. Near normal temperature and precipitation are still expected on the whole, he said.
All three territories are expected to see near normal precipitation. The forecast says Yukon and western parts of Northwest Territories could see below normal temperatures, while the eastern parts and Nunavut will be near normal.
Climate change has also shifted what meteorologists consider normal across Canada. The forecasts of above- or below-normal temperatures and precipitation are based on average conditions over roughly the past 30 years.
Yet, Canadian springs have on average warmed by about two degrees since 1948, according to the latest federal data.
Scott says there are early signs of a hot, dry summer in store for U.S. agricultural regions, and he'll be watching to see if that trend spills into the "grain belt" in the southern Canadian Prairies.
"That's a long way out right now, but we're already thinking about that summer trend," he said.
"Getting moisture, especially in the latter half of spring, is going to be very important in this part of the country."
