Deadly terrorist attacks in Paris have prompted renewed debate about the Liberal government's intention to withdraw from airstrikes against the Islamic State, but some experts say there is little reason to rethink the plan.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a campaign promise to pull Canada's warplanes from Syria and Iraq and instead focus on training local fighters. He reiterated it in a phone call with U.S. President Barack Obama a day after he was elected.
And on Saturday, after Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant claimed responsibility for attacks in France that killed at least 129 people — an "act of war," according to French president Francois Hollande — a senior official in Trudeau's office confirmed he hadn't changed his mind.
That's the right call, says Andrew Mack, a security expert and fellow at the One Earth Future Foundation.
"Nothing has changed. The attack on Paris makes no difference whatsoever to the rationale for not bombing. I actually think bombing is effective, but Canada's contribution to it is minimal. It really doesn't make any difference one way or another," he said.
Mack said the Islamic State was losing in Syria, pointing to its loss of a town between Mosul and Al-Raqqah and the likelihood it would lose another soon. These defeats are likely to affect its ability to attract disaffected youth, he said.
"The Kurds have been making advances all over Syria and Iraq, and the advances they have been making have been facilitated by airstrikes by the United States."
Andre Gerolymatos, a security expert at Simon Fraser University, said while recent air cover provided to the Kurds to capture a town was successful, the overall bombing mission has not been.
"The coalition has been bombing ISIS and what happened in Paris took place (Friday) night regardless," he said. "So, what makes more sense is to train Kurds or anyone else who wants to fight ISIS."
Gerolymatos added that air strikes are imprecise and kill civilians. He acknowledged, though, that Canada handed the Islamic State a propaganda win when it announced it would withdraw its fighter jets.
"ISIS claimed it as a victory on all the websites. They were saying 'the first crack in the coalition, it's a major victory for ISIS, Canada has been defeated,' and all that."
Interim Conservative leader Rona Ambrose called on Trudeau Saturday to rethink withdrawing from the combat mission and the premiers of Quebec and Saskatchewan expressed support for continuing to be part of the military action.
Trudeau has not set a timeline for the withdrawal and some experts speculated he could wait for Canada's military commitment to expire in March. Paul Heinbecker, former Canadian ambassador to the United Nations, said now would be an "awkward moment" to carry out the policy change.
He said one argument for ending the mission is that the more the West gets involved in the fight, the worse it becomes.
"The other side of the argument is if you don't stop these people now while they're still of a manageable size, you have a much bigger problem on your hands," he said. "I tend toward the second interpretation."
Some have speculated France will invoke NATO's Article 5, which requires all members to defend a member under attack. But Christian Leuprecht, a security expert with Queens University and the Royal Military College of Canada, said there is no indication that France will do so.
Speaking from the French city of Grenoble where he is currently working, Leuprecht said a massive military response in Syria would only heighten the refugee influx, an outcome France does not want.
He said the global community must find a path to a ceasefire in Syria.
"ISIS wants to fight. ISIS is about bringing on the apocalypse. That's the end game," he said. "You want the world to go down in a handbasket. The perpetrators (in Paris) showed that."
SOME QUOTES FROM CANADIANS ON THE PARIS TERRORIST ATTACKS
Canadian political leaders and Canadians in general were talking about Friday's attacks in Paris that killed at least 129 people. Here are some quotes:
"The Government of Canada is unwavering in its commitment to protect the safety and security of Canadians, and to defend this nation's values. We will take all appropriate action to counter terrorist threats to Canada, its citizens, our way of life and our interests around the world," Statement from Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale.
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"It doesn't show our resolute support for our allies at a time when we need to stand shoulder to shoulder with them," Interim Conservative leader Rona Ambrose on the federal government's intention to withdraw from coalition airstrikes against ISIL.
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"We will show 'absolute resolve' by being the only country to withdraw from air strikes against the perpetrators?'' — Conservative MP Jason Kenney, on Twitter, commenting on the Canadian government's intention to go ahead with plans to no longer take part in air strikes against ISIL.
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"Yesterday's attack was a deadly reminder that there are people in the world who do not share our values and who will stop at nothing in their attempts to impose their twisted, evil ideology through violence, destruction and death. They must be defeated. There truly is no other option.'' — statement from Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall.
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"All of us are (struggling) to make sense of the horrific violence today in Paris. For now, we pray and commit ourselves to show goodness to all." — Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi on Twitter late Friday.
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"The Muslim community in Canada and around the world is shocked and saddened by these attacks. The attackers must be brought to justice and punished." — statement from Imam Syed Soharwardy, founder of the Islamic Supreme Council of Canada and Muslims Against Terrorism.
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"Regardless what the attackers were shouting at the time of attacks and whatever their names may be we Muslims do not consider them Muslims. The attacks in Paris are in fact attacks on Islam and Muslims too." — statement from they Islamic Supreme Council of Canada and Muslims Against Terrorism.
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"Fear of refugees who have fled this exact kind of violence in their homeland is not what we need in Canada." — Journalist and former hostage Amanda Lindout, on Twitter.
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"I am deeply shocked and appalled by these cowardly and heinous acts which cause suffering and trauma. I condemn in the strongest terms these immoral and senseless attacks intended to sow terror across the world. These unacceptable and unjustifiable attacks that happened in the aftermath of those in Beirut remind us of the need to resist together the scourge of terrorism." — Statement from Michaelle Jean, former governor general.
